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China-US Think Tank Trade Dialogues No.2: Taking the Temperature of US-China Relations

2018-09-04

Taking the Temperature of US-China Relations:

Current Status, Future Pathways


Washington, DC

August 30, 2018


Hosts:

Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS)

Chongyang Institute for Financial Studies, Renmin University of China (RDCY)


9:00-9:15: Welcome

Co-Chairs: Christopher K. Johnson & Liu Yuanchun

Brief Comments from Dr. John Hamre and Madame Fu Ying


9:15-9:50: Session #1: Complaints

Chair: Christopher K. Johnson

Commenter: Zhu Guangyao

Q’s: What are the most important complaints each side has about each other, including economic policy, domestic politics, and foreign policy? Is there any agreement between the two sides in their respective analysis, or are we destined to talk past one another?


9:50-10:25: Session #2: Analyzing the Other Side

Chair: Huang Yong

Commenter: Kurt Campbell*

Q’s: How well or poorly have both sides judged the actions of the other? And why? Was the current situation of escalation inevitable, and if not, what were the key turning points that could have resulted in a different outcome?


10:25-10:35: Coffee Break


10:35-11:15: Session #3: Trade Conflicts and the Political Effects of Tensions

Chair: Scott Kennedy

Commenter: Mao Zhenhua

Q’s: What are the effects of the trade conflict on the two countries’ economies and domestic politics? How much will this affect growth and financial markets? Conversely, would serious economic and political troubles at home make it more or less likely for the two sides to have greater interest in resuming negotiations?


11:15-11:55: Session #4: The Competition for Friends and Support

Chair: He Yafei

Commenter: Kevin Rudd*

Q’s: Are other countries and international organizations blaming one side more than the other? How likely is it that the US or China will be able to attract others to proactively voice support or take substantive actions in support of their position?


12:00-1:15 pm: Working Lunch: Next Steps

Chair: Christopher K. Johnson

Commenters: Fu Ying and Robert Zoellick*

Q’s: In the short-term, what are steps both sides could take to get talks re-started, or can a floor be put under the relationship? What could a meeting between Trump and Xi alongside the UN General Assembly achieve? In the long-term, are the two countries increasingly likely to be strategic rivals, and if so, how could that rivalry be managed?


Chinese Participants

Cui Tiankai, Chinese Ambassador to the United States

Fu Ying, National People’s Congress Standing Committee Member, and Former Chair of the NPC Foreign Affairs Committee

Zhu Guangyao, Former Deputy Minister of Finance

He Yafei, Former Deputy Minister of Foreign Affairs

Xi Yanchun, Vice Director-General of Press Bureau, State Council Information Office

Zhou Qiangwu, Director, Ministry of Finance Center on International Economics and Finance

Huang Yong, Director, NDRC Center on International Cooperation

Liu Yuanchun, Vice President, Renmin University of China

Mao Zhenhua, Director, Institute of Economics, Renmin University of China

Tu Xinquan, Dean, China Institute for WTO Studies, University of International Business and Economics

Wang Wen, Executive Director, Chongyang Institute of Finance, Renmin University of China


Staff

Shang Long, Deputy Division Chief of the Press Bureau, State Council Information Office

Xu Longchao, Officer, International Affairs Bureau, State Council Information Office

Xiao Qian, Assistant to Amb. Fu Ying

Qian Jiangnan, Assistant to Mr. Zhu Guangyao

Hu Haibin, Assistant Dean of Chongyang Institute for Financial Studies, Renmin University of China

Chen Chenchen, Deputy Director of Macro Research Department of Chongyang Institute for Financial Studies, Renmin University of China

Yao Le, Assistant Research Fellow of Chongyang Institute for Financial Studies, Renmin University of China

Ren Wei, Assistant Research Fellow of Chongyang Institute for Financial Studies, Renmin University of China


American Participants

Eric Altbach, Senior Vice President, Albright Stonebridge Group

Wendy Cutler, Vice President, Asia Society Policy Institute

Bonnie Glaser, Senior Adviser and Director, China Power Project, CSIS

Matthew Goodman, Senior Vice President & Simon Chair in Political Economy, CSIS

Ryan Hass, David M.Rubinstein Fellow, Brookings Institution

Christopher Johnson, Freeman Chair in China Studies, CSIS

Scott Kennedy, Deputy Director, Freeman Chair in China Studies, CSIS

Nicholas Lardy, Anthony M. Solomon Fellow, Peterson Institution for International Economics

Dave Rank, Senior Advisor, The Cohen Group

Ely Ratner, Vice President and Director of Studies, Center for a New American Security

Claire Reade, Senior Associate, Freeman Chair in China Studies, CSIS

Stephanie Segal, Deputy Director, Simon Chair in Political Economy, CSIS

Jeremie Waterman, President, China Center, US Chamber of Commerce

Key Words: China   US   trade   RDCY   

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