On December 29th, hosted by the Chinese Council of the BRICS National Think Tank Cooperation (CCBTC) and the Renmin University of China, and organized by the Chongyang Institute for Financial Studies at Renmin University of China (RDCY), China Council for BRICS Think Tank Cooperation Annual Meeting and First Wanshou Forum on International Situation was held in Beijing, with the theme of “China and the World in the New Era”.
Professor Jin Canrong, Associate Dean of the School of International Studies at Renmin University of China, delivered a speech at the luncheon session. Professor Jin focuses on economy in 2018, international situations and the challenges facing China's diplomacy.
First of all, Professor Jin Canrong analyzed the economic situations in 2018. He noted that global situations in 2018 were full of complexity and changes, and trade conflicts will become a long-term issue.
There are some significant features of global situations in 2018. First, major power competition is emerging again. Big powers are pursuing cooperation in the past, however, competition has become the first place nowadays. Second, trade friction is a hot issue. The West abandoned the free trade which has been prevailed for decades, especially the United States, a former leader of free trade, has become an obstacle. Third, the regional situations are of differentiation.
Then, Professor Jin Canrong pointed out that “unprecedented change” is approaching. He argues that “unprecedented changes” covers three facts that indicate the Western countries are declining while the non-Western are rising. First, the developed countries, such as Japan, South Korea, are undergoing aging population. Second, the heavy welfare burdens of the Western weaken their competition. Third, the differentiation between the rich and the poor is severe. And there is no denying the fact that the Fourth Industrial Revolution is around the corner.
Finally, Professor Jin Canrong concludes that China-US ties enter the new normal. He believes that China and the US were taking active cooperation in the past forty years while the Sino-US relations will be competitive for the next ten years. The new normal means about seventy percent of the Sino-US relations is competition while thirty percent is cooperation.
If we don’t make mistakes and work hard to avoid the conflicts, the relations will be up to a new stage after ten years, Jin said. He also depicted the new partnership between the two countries at that moment, noting that United States will change attitude and give up containing China.