On October 11th, the forth lecture of"The 70th Anniversary of the Founding of The PRC" series which hosted by Chongyang Institute for Financial Studies of Renmin University of China (RDCY) and Huanqiu Web, was held at RDCY.
Di Dongsheng, the Deputy dean of School of International Studies of Renmin University of China, delivered a keynote speech on "China and World Economy in the past 70 years". The lecture was hosted by Chen Zhiheng, an assistant research fellow of RDCY. Jia Jinjing, Assistant to the dean of RDCY, gave an opening speech. More than 200 guests attended the lecture.
According to the changes of world patterns, Dr. Di divided the 70 years' development into three stages, separately 1947-1978, 1978-2008 and 2009-now, and analyzed the three stages from the theme of the times, mainstream ideology and economic policies, the features of global economic operation, and national security strategies.
From 1949 to 1978, the theme of times is the Cold War, anti-colonialism, anti- hegemonism. The theme of 1978 to 2008 is the globalization of new liberalism dominated by the United States. De-globalization has been the theme for us from 2009. Dr. Di pointed that the definition of globalization could be divided into the board sense and the narrow sense. In board sense, the Geographical Discovery broke the marine restrictions and opened the age of globalization which was a result of civilization integration but not changed the national identities. Theoretically, globalization in a board sense is irreversible and not same as the de-globalization which posted in 2009 and dominated by Americans with the neo-liberalism.
The mainstream ideologies and economic policies are different in the three stages. From 1949 to 1978, the ideology with left-wing revolutionism was mainstream in many Asian, African and Latin American countries. These governments implemented Keynesianism in economy which highlighted government finances and stressed the structuralism in methodology. But the ideological trends slipped to the right wing which presented the power of capital and management from 1979 to 2008.During the period, right-wing liberalism was the mainstream with policies of opening, free competition, less administrative controls and low taxes. Then to 2009, the populism is up from the developed world to developing world. All people are paying attention to top-level design from up to down, and requiring governmental intervention and redistribution to narrow the gap between the rich and the poor.
Economic operation in the three stages reflects the ideology and economic policies respectively. As Dr. Di said, in the first stage the economy was featured with relatively equal wealth distribution, speed-up economic growth, the descending debt ratio and increasing inflation. In the second stage, people born in 1946 to 1964 became the backbone power with the polarization of wealth and faced the challenges of decreasing inflation and the increasing debt ratio. After 2009, the problem of third stage has shifted into deflation, lower growth, negative interest rates and the trade and investment protection.
What are the national security strategies matching to the three periods?
In his opinions, from 1949 to 1978 the topic in strategy was the competition of intercontinental weapons and nuclear missile and the balance between US and the Soviet Union. Precise strike by intelligent weapons was the most important part from 1978 to 2008, especially 80s to 90s when US became the only power. But since 2009, the situation has changed and the era of multi-polarization is coming characterized by AI, Space power and genetic weapons.