by: Liu Ying Source: YQQLM Published: 2020-11-11
Editor’s note: and Tron Compared with general, what new opportunities and challenges will Biden bring to China? How should China adjust its US strategy? What should I pay attention to when dealing with other international affairs? With these questions in mind, Liu Ying, director of the Cooperative Research Department and Researcher of the Chongyang Institute of Finance of Renmin University of China, accepted an interview with Fengxiang.com. This article is transferred from Phoenix.com on November 9.
1. Biden won the election, but Trump was not reconciled to the peaceful transfer of power. There may be more frictions and conflicts in the United States, and even constitutional crisis, but the chance of civil war is small.
2. Ten policy cooperation will be strengthened:If Biden comes to power, the Sino-US trade war may suspend fierce frictions, and cooperation opportunities such as bilateral trade exchanges and cultural exchanges will resume and substantially Increasing, at the same time, it may weaken political provocations against China and financial investment restrictions; internationally, the United States will return to major international organizations such as the Paris Agreement, WHO, and UNESCO, and re-compete for world rule-making power and leadership.
3. The ten major challenges are imminent: In terms of attitude towards China, Biden will still regard China as a strategic competitor, continue the technological war and win over allies, through technological restrictions and technology. Traditional methods such as transfers and network security have suppressed China. In response to the issues of Hong Kong, the South China Sea, and Taiwan, as well as labor, environment, and human rights issues, the United States continues to suppress and find fault with China.
4. China’s response strategy: Focus on technological innovation internally, deepen reform and expand the high-level opening to the outside world, comprehensively build a socialist modern power, and strengthen cooperation with the United States on an equal basis. To jointly build the “Belt and Road” at a high level, it is necessary to implement the strategy of “jointly vertical and horizontal” to confine the United States. At the same time, it will continue to strengthen bilateral and multilateral cooperation and actively participate in the formulation and improvement of international rules.
5. Sino-US cooperation in a special period has become the key to global anti-epidemic and economic recovery. The improvement and reform of international organizations such as WTO requires the active support of the United States to restart. Biden needs to learn from Trump’s lessons.
It is not easy for Biden to be on stage, with high probability of conflict and low probability of civil war
Fengxiang.com”Wind Direction”: Some Western media said , The general election has further highlighted or aggravated the division of the United States. Do you think the United States will break out of a”civil war” because of this?
Liu Ying: I don’t think the”civil war” will break out, but there are still some unprecedented situations in this election. I am afraid it will be difficult for Trump to transfer power peacefully. . We now look at the general election. So far, Biden has won more than 290 electoral votes and is about to be elected the 46th President of the United States. But Trump refused to hand over power peacefully. It is still difficult for Biden to successfully take office, because various conflicts and frictions may erupt between them.
But in fact, it will be difficult for Trump to take measures to prevent Biden from winning, because that is unreasonably making trouble and restricting democracy. I think the stalemate is likely to happen if the two sides are evenly matched, with close to 270 votes, the two sides may fight and compete more fiercely. But now Biden has won, so the possibility of a”civil war” is not very high.
Biden will re-join the group? China-US cultural exchanges and trade cooperation usher in spring
Fengxiang.com”Wind Direction”: For China, the Biden administration’s Will the China policy be more favorable than the Trump administration?
Liu Ying: For China and the world, Biden’s coming to power is much more advantageous than Trump’s coming to power, compared to Trump’s turning his face in the Sino-US trade frictions. Take a quick look, it is different from the fact that various domestic epidemics, employment and other issues are often thrown out of thin air to China. Biden is relatively rational and pragmatic. The key is predictability and strong certainty. Now the world needs stability. Generally speaking, with Biden coming to power, the opportunities and space for cooperation between China and the United States are vast. Although he will still not change his strategy towards China, he will still treat China as a strategic competitor of the United States and play against China like Trump, but he will change tactics, which will lead to Many opportunities for cooperation.
Phoenix.com”Wind Direction”: What are the specific opportunities for cooperation between China and the United States? Will the United States stop the trade war with China?
Liu Ying: I think that if Bi comes on stage, there will be ten opportunities for China to”strengthen cooperation”.
First of all, trade cooperation between China and the United States will have a broader scope and greater intensity. I think Biden will gradually stop the Sino-US trade war. Unlike the Republican Party’s adherence to trade protectionism, the Democratic Party upholds free trade. Biden has repeatedly expressed opposition to trade wars and tariff wars. Therefore, after Biden came to power, China and the US Trade frictions are expected to ease, or even pick up. Judging from my country’s import and export trade data in October this year, the US dollar-denominated trade deficit has increased by more than 38%, which shows that tariff wars and trade wars have no effect on reducing the trade deficit. They are just an excuse to protect the infant industries of the United States. In fact, the trade between China and the United States has strengthened in recent months, not weakened. It is actually impossible for the United States to win a trade war, and the trade deficit is not the decisive factor in terminating the trade between the two countries. What’s more, the Sino-US trade deficit is actually determined by the economic complementarity and international division of labor between China and the United States, and the nature of the US dollar as the world currency. The United States can only export dollars if it maintains a deficit.
The other is the US investment in China. Almost 70,000 American companies are now in China, but China has invested less in the United States. Considering that the United States strictly restricts the export of technology products to China, on the whole, the trade between China and the United States is balanced, rather than the United States previously thought The”trade deficit China takes advantage of the United States.” Unlike the Republican Party’s trade protectionism, Biden advocates free trade on behalf of the Democratic Party. Therefore, I think Biden will cut taxes and stop irrational China and harm the trade war between China and the United States.
Secondly, if Biden comes to power, the United States will resume and strengthen cultural exchanges with China. Adjust the current immigration policy. He once said that he would increase 140,000 employment green cards per year and restore the cooperation and exchanges in various fields of education and humanities between China and the United States.
Looking back over the past four years, Trump has actually been deviating from the normal track of Sino-US relations. He has been practicing isolationism, trade protectionism, and even hegemonism. He has deviated too much from the normal track of Sino-US relations. Far away, and I think Biden will come back in various ways, and Sino-US relations will also return to the right track.
Although he will not change the positioning of China as a strategic competitor, at least he does not regard China as an enemy like Trump. However, from a specific tactical perspective, he needs to cooperate with China to tap the greater economic development potential of the United States. At the China level, Biden will resume cooperation in various aspects such as cultural exchanges, trade exchanges, and financial investment.
Third, Biden will return to the Paris Agreement on climate change.
In addition, there will be a return at the international level. I think he will return to the Paris Agreement and the WHO after he takes office. The Iranian nuclear agreement may be restarted and the North Korean nuclear issue will advance. The groups who have retired from Lampoon can basically return. I think that CPTPP (TPP) and even TTIP may be restarted, including international organizations such as UNESCO and the United Nations Human Rights Council that were previously withdrawn by Trump. He will continue to do so. return. He hopes that the United States will lead the world again and he will return to these international organizations. He will not withdraw from the WTO but will try to rebuild the WTO.
Therefore, I believe that these abnormal and off-track paths pursued by Trump will gradually return to their original positions. This is an international level.
Fourth, the list of Sino-US cooperation will be lengthened:100+ dialogue mechanisms.
On July 9, Wang Yi State Committee mentioned at the think tank and media summit that China and the United States must have a list of cooperation between each other, and the longer the list of cooperation, the better. The list of Sino-US cooperation can be very long. According to our incomplete statistics, there are more than 150 Sino-US dialogue and cooperation mechanisms alone. That is to say, China and the United States, whether at the federal or state level, are political, economic, and cultural. There are 160 cooperative dialogue mechanisms in various fields of humanities. I think these mechanisms will be gradually restarted instead of being blocked by Trump.
Fifth, Biden will weaken the political provocation against China, but will unite his allies with a unified strategy against China.
After Biden takes the stage, I think he will learn some lessons from the Trump era. Trump’s so-called US-first strategy has not actually made the United States great, but has seriously damaged the credibility of the United States, and even affected the United States’ position in the world. Biden’s campaign speech proposed to fight for the soul, and he hopes that the United States will lead the world again. But if the United States wants to lead the world, it must first do itself well. First of all, the United States must handle the relationship with the largest developing China. After all, China is its largest trading partner and the largest developing country. It is an important member of various multilateral organizations such as permanent members of the United Nations. country.
Secondly, I think that Biden will not exert extreme pressure like Trump, make unreasonable troubles, or even step on the line everywhere, making use of the Taiwan issue, Hong Kong issue, Tibet and Xinjiang. The article uses the so-called domestic laws of the United States to make irresponsible remarks about a sovereign country. Biden will at least abide by the basic norms of international relations. His behavior is predictable. He understands that he cannot challenge the bottom line of the sovereignty of other countries, and he will not provoke easily. However, Biden may also continue to implement the so-called American bills against China in the South China Sea, Taiwan, Hong Kong, Xinjiang, and Tibet, and he may join other so-called alliances to adopt other methods to get along with China.
Sixth, Biden may ”weaken” restrictions on Chinese companies’ financial investment in the United States. Although Biden will increase taxes appropriately, investment in China will not be fully restricted. Previously, the Trump administration directly restricted Chinese companies from investing in the United States, and Wall Street was also backed by some strengths of the Democratic Party. It would threaten and exert pressure on Chinese investors. But if Bi is on stage, I think it will be better than it is now. Mutual benefit and win-win cooperation are what both China and the United States need, and he will also weaken this restriction.
For diplomacy, internal affairs will return. From a domestic perspective, Biden will return to the previous Obama healthcare reform And strengthen financial supervision. In terms of health care reform, Obamacare is aimed at universal health care, and he will definitely return to Obamacare. There is also to strengthen financial supervision and return to Volcker’s Law. The Dodd-Frank Act was formulated after the 2008 financial crisis to cover regulatory gaps, prevent regulatory arbitrage, and strengthen the firewall. The Trump administration liberalized the Dodd-Frank Act and relaxed After financial supervision, I think Biden will return to Volcker’s law and financial supervision when he comes up. He will strengthen financial supervision.
Seventh, China and the United States will have plenty of opportunities for cooperation in the field of clean energy.
For example, with regard to traditional energy, Trump is somewhat relaxed. In order to promote so-called economic growth, he deregulated coal and oil and gas, but these are actually restricted in the West. I think that after Biden takes office, whether for climate change or future clean energy, he will increase cooperation opportunities between China and the United States in the field of new energy. After all, China is a global leader in all aspects of wind power and solar energy. Biden’s campaign platform stated that it will solve 10 million new jobs in the field of clean energy.
Eighth, China and the United States will also strengthen cooperation in the field of infrastructure construction. Biden proposed a 2 trillion investment plan for climate and infrastructure construction, including railways, smart cities, and other aspects. In terms of infrastructure, China is a global leader in capital, cost, and management. In these areas, China and the United States have broad Space for cooperation.
Ninth, after Bi takes the stage, he will change the current public health policy, return to the WHO, and jointly fight the epidemic. In the field of global health, especially in the fight against the epidemic, China, as the first country to control the epidemic, has sufficient production capacity for masks. Biden said that the first thing he came to power was to implement the anti-epidemic, and he had begun to appoint experts. To solve the epidemic, Bibi can also strengthen China-US cooperation in the fight against the epidemic after he takes office. This is helpful to repair Sino-US relations, is also a great contribution to the global fight against the epidemic, and is a blessing to the people of the world.
Tenth, cooperation on counter-terrorism will be strengthened. Biden is an expert on counter-terrorism and other issues, and he also puts counter-terrorism issues on the agenda. In terms of counter-terrorism, China and the United States have their own cooperation mechanisms. Restarting counter-terrorism cooperation is conducive to the security and stability of China, the United States and the world.
Technology wars and rules battles will continue, and Biden’s suppression of China will regain traditional methods
Phoenix.com”Wind Direction”: What new challenges do you think Biden will bring to Sino-US relations? Will Biden form an”anti-China alliance”?
Liu Ying: Correspondingly, Biden will also impose certain suppression on China after he takes the stage, mainly in the following ten aspects:
First, in terms of intellectual property rights, the United States under Biden’s leadership will put forward various requirements for China’s intellectual property protection and technology transfer.
Secondly, I think he will continue to strengthen the suppression of China’s technology. In fact, the United States has fallen into the Thucydides trap and adopted technological suppression measures against the rising powers. Biden will also continue the technological war and change some tactics.
Third, repair the rift between the United States and its allies and unite allies to cooperate with China. Biden has repeatedly stated that he will unite with his former allies. Every ally who has been defeated by the Trump administration’s trade wars may be taken back by Biden. He will unite his allies to deal with China. We need to prevent and control.
Fourth, Biden will also suppress China through traditional means of restricting state-owned enterprises. For example, the so-called restrictions on state subsidies. The United States has always criticized China’s state-owned enterprises. In terms of subsidies, I think China and the United States need to sit down and talk. Of course, China has been on the way to deepen the reform of state-owned enterprises.
Fifth, Biden may also suppress China through issues such as currency manipulation. The Democratic Party likes to talk about exchange rate manipulators. This is because of the power behind it. We need to prevent the United States from using exchange rate manipulators to reason with us.
Sixth, the Biden administration will lead the world in terms of rules and restrict and exclude China, such as the formulation of digital economy, trade rules, investment rules, etc.
Seventh, in terms of financial investment, the Biden government will strengthen investment security reviews and restrict China’s outbound investment. Although China has strengthened the opening up of its financial industry to the United States, and various card companies and asset management companies have settled in China, the United States will also conduct various reviews on corporate investment in China.
Eighth, in the international community, questioning and interfering with China’s policies on the consistent issues of labor, environment, and human rights. This is the usual trick of the Democratic Party. As a high-level construction of the”Belt and Road” and high-level economic development, we will all solve these environmental problems, labor issues, and human rights issues. We also need to prevent the West from using these obstacles to build the”Belt and Road”. All the way”.
Ninth, Biden will also suppress China through traditional precautions such as network security, especially in digital trade. Biden said that it is necessary to strengthen the U.S.’s global leadership and rule-making power. As the rule-making of digital trade and digital economy is at the forefront, China is a leader in this regard. We need to participate in formulating rules with other countries in the world. .
Tenth, in terms of political security, there will be increased interference in the key issues of Hong Kong, South China Sea and Taiwan. As a useful tool of the Democratic Party, it is also Trump’s political legacy. Biden may continue to implement the bill passed by the two parties with high votes and continue to find fault.
Dealing with the United States requires a”longitudinal and continuous”
Fengxiang.com”Wind Direction”: How should China respond? Compared with the Trump era, what strategic adjustments are needed?
Liu Ying: China wants to deal with the United States. I think it must do its own business well at the moment, deeply understand the spirit of the Fifth Plenary Session, and persist in implementing and fully implementing it. The 14th Five-Year Plan and the long-term goals for 2030. We must take innovation as the core position in the overall situation of modernization, and scientific and technological innovation must be self-reliant. Implement the innovation-driven development strategy, improve the national innovation system, and accelerate the establishment of a technological power. Realizing the modernization of the country’s governance system and governance capabilities, and building into a socialist modern power in an all-round way, is not afraid of suppression from any aspect. This is the first thing to do, and the second is to properly handle the relationship with the United States.
Facing the siege of the United States, I feel that we need to unite. On the one hand, we must strengthen cooperation with the United States and restart all aspects of cooperation and dialogue. As long as the United States is willing to cooperate with us, our door to the outside world is open, and we can open channels for dialogue in all directions and strengthen all aspects of cooperation with the United States. Cooperation in the field. On the other hand, I think we need to avoid conflicts between China and the United States as much as possible, seek common ground while reserving differences, and manage differences. The current global control of the epidemic and the restoration of the world economy is a top priority. To this end, China and the United States need to strengthen pragmatic cooperation in various fields. China and the United States can conduct normal exchanges in accordance with the cooperation list, dialogue list, and control list to strengthen dialogue and cooperation. Some problems encountered in Sino-US cooperation must be resolved through dialogue. We have more than 150 dialogue mechanisms, we need to restart it, and then solve these problems through communication.
Fengxiang.com”Wind Direction”:In addition to strengthening Sino-US cooperation, what should China pay attention to when handling international affairs?
Liu Ying: We need to understand that although Sino-US relations are very important bilateral relations, they are not the only ones. We must strengthen cooperation with Europe. The world is so big, we can’t just focus on the United States, but now we need to further strengthen bilateral and multilateral cooperation between China, Europe, China and ASEAN, China Africa, China, Japan and South Korea.
It is also important to build the”Belt and Road” with high quality. It cannot be said that because of the emergence of the epidemic, we will stop or shrink the joint construction of the “Belt and Road”. On the contrary, we must jointly build the “Belt and Road” with high quality. I think the high quality of it is embodied in various aspects such as greenness, sustainability, and benefits to the people. It is necessary to strengthen close cooperation with more than 130 countries to achieve win-win cooperation and build a community with a shared future for mankind. And it needs to be strengthened in terms of international rulemaking. In formulating the rules of the digital economy, we just need to participate and even lead. We cannot just wait for the United States or the so-called West to dominate the formulation of these international rules. Originally, the”Belt and Road” is a public product that China provides to the world. Whether it is hardware or software, China and other countries have more work to do.
Sino-U.S. cooperation in a special period has become the key to global anti-epidemic and economic recovery
Fengxiang.com”Wind Direction”: strong>In this special period, what is the world significance of the easing of Sino-US relations?
Liu Ying: I believe that stabilizing Sino-US relations is not only helpful to China and the United States, but is also very important to the stability of the global world economy. Cooperation leads to both gains, while fighting leads to both defeats. Especially at the moment, I actually think that a relatively large cooperation and urgent need between China and the United States is to fight the epidemic. China and the United States have a lot of potential for cooperation in the global health security fight against the epidemic. The United States added 140,000 cases on October 4. The United States may not only be the second wave of the epidemic, it is already close to being out of control. And the United States cannot control the epidemic. It is difficult for other countries in the world to say that the epidemic has been controlled. Therefore, I am also a cooperation point between China and the United States in response to the epidemic.
China-US cooperation in various fields such as economic and trade and cultural exchanges needs to be further strengthened. It is very necessary to control differences. The United States needs to stop the so-called Taiwan Strait and South China Sea issues. It cannot use the so-called”Indo-Pacific strategy”,”long-arm jurisdiction” and”offshore balancer” to cause trouble. China and the United States should respect each other and strengthen cooperation on the basis of equality.
In addition to the epidemic, there is another very important issue in the global economic recovery. The global economy is in a state of negative growth this year, and the United States has also fallen a lot. Only China has a positive growth. Strengthening the economic and trade cooperation, economic cooperation, industrial cooperation and cooperation in various fields between China and the United States is actually very important for promoting the recovery of the global economy. China is actually the engine of global economic growth, and it is also a stabilizer. It can stabilize the supply chain of the industrial chain and prevent it from a financial crisis as much as possible, and at the same time promote the growth of global trade. The resumption of normal economic and trade cooperation between China and the United States and the order of global trade are very important for restoring world economic growth.
Including the reform of international organizations, it actually requires the joint efforts of China and the United States. With regard to the improvement and reform of WTO and other international organizations, the WTO’s appeal mechanism paralyzed due to the obstruction of the United States, and the United States needs to actively support the restart. In all aspects of international cooperation, international macro policy coordination and other aspects, China and the United States need to strengthen cooperation, and through the five-way cooperation and joint efforts to assume international responsibilities, to control the epidemic, and to restart the engine of world economic growth. Whether in the G20 or the United Nations, China and the United States need to work together to strengthen cooperation at the multilateral level to jointly control the epidemic, restart the world economy, and maintain normal international economic and financial order. This requires China and the United States to strengthen cooperation, not to engage in divisions and differences. I think that after Bi came to power, he needs to learn from Trump’s lessons.
Actually, I think whether it’s Trump or Bi’s coming to power, we should all take it lightly. First, do your own thing, and then strengthen cooperation and exchanges with the United States. In terms of improving global governance, we have actually begun to do more work. If Bi is on stage, overall I think China and the United States have room for a turnaround. Whether it is their tactical level to strengthen cooperation with China, or whether they want to return to normal Sino-US relations, despite the stronger pressure, they are still cautiously optimistic about China and the United States. At least we will have more cooperation possibilities, greater cooperation space and potential, and predictable Sino-US relations. This is also a great benefit to the world.
The Chongyang Institute of Finance, Renmin University of China (Chongyang) was established on January 19, 2013. It was the chairman of Chongyang Investment, Mr. Qiu Guogen, who donated to his alma mater and set up an education fund The main funded project. As a new type of think tank with Chinese characteristics, Chongyang National People’s Congress has hired dozens of former politicians, bankers, and well-known scholars from around the world as senior researchers with the aim of paying attention to reality, advocating for the country, and serving the people. At present, the National People’s Congress Chongyang has 7 departments and 4 centers for operation and management (Ecological Finance Research Center, Global Governance Research Center, China-US Humanities Exchange Research Center, China-Russia Humanities Exchange Research Center). In recent years, Chongyang National People’s Congress has gained high recognition at home and abroad in the fields of financial development, global governance, major power relations, and macro policies.
Liu Ying, research fellow at the Chongyang Institute for Financial Studies at Renmin University of China in Beijing
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On July 9th 2020, China Public Diplomacy Association, Peking University and Renmin University of China co-hosted "Mutual Respect, Mutual Trust and Cooperation —— The Right Way Forward for China-U.S. Relations" China-US Think Tanks Media Forum. The State Councilor and Foreign Minister Wang Yi attended the meeting and delivered the keynote speech. Chongyang Institute for Financial Studies, Renmin University of China (RDCY) is one of the main organizers of this forum.